eThesis - Kauppakorkeakoulun sähköiset gradut

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Abstract: The media industry is facing an unpredictable future due to the digitalization of the value chain, changing consumption habits and economic turmoil. Tablets are a new technology solution that is spreading quickly and may turn out to be disruptive for the news and magazines industry. In the short term, media companies focus on keeping their current operations profitable, but also seek insight regarding the future for finding new business opportunities and formulating their strategies. This study combines the Delphi and scenario analysis methods to develop future scenarios for media industry in 2020. An iterative expert interviewing process is conducted in an Argument Delphi manner, the aim being not to forecast but to reveal alternative options. A disruptive innovation diffusion framework is used to provide a non-linear approach as tablets enter the market. Well known futures thinking methods are combined and used for the first time to identify possible industry discontinuities. In addition to methodological contributions, this study provides three future scenarios for the media industry. Even though, the study does not provide specific answers, scenarios are useful for understanding current business issues as well as directing media related research and business development programs. Implications of the three media industry scenarios are presented in respect of industry structure analysis and five new business models. Keywords: Strategic Foresight, Industry Life Cycle, Diffusion of disruptive technology, Future Studies, Delphi-scenario method, News and magazines industry Tommi Laivuori Aalto University ii Contents